Five Questions About the Future of Architects

Machines have taken over the world. Algorithms now influence every process and industry, from government and waste collection to agriculture and manufacturing. Offices stand empty because robots that handle paperwork cost a fraction of human employees. People have little choice but to accept it, and many live below the poverty line.

The city of the future in the film Ready Player One

This is the future imagined by many who study or depict humanity's development, from analysts to dystopian writers. In this article, we examine whether the future is really so threatening for architects.

1. When did computers first try to replace architects?

It began in the 1960s, decades before the first personal computers. Researchers began exploring ways to automate building design. Their work focused on optimizing floor plans to shorten walking distances because documents still had to be delivered by hand.

For example, the 1977 book The Automated Architect explains why computers are well suited to the tedious calculations needed to quantify travel time between rooms.

Technology did eventually solve the problem, but not in the way researchers expected: documents began to be sent by mail rather than delivered by hand.

2. Does that mean there are fewer architects?

Not exactly. In the United States, the number of architects increased throughout the 2000s, when computers were already in widespread use. The decline began after the 2008 global financial crisis, and jobs started growing again in 2012.

This does not mean computers had no effect on the labor market. For example, employment among architectural drafters did not grow, possibly because of advances in technology and software.

© U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / Case Inc.

3. How likely is this to affect me?

Automation is unlikely to replace architects on a large scale for at least the next few decades, according to this view. Architecture requires negotiation and original thinking—skills that algorithms have not fully mastered.

The Oxford University study ‘The Future of Employment’ supports this view. Its estimates put architects' probability of computer replacement at 1.8%, compared with 84.9% for taxi drivers and 93.5% for accountants.

The report is available at this link.

4. I'm not an architect, but I work in the field. Should I worry?

Both yes and no. Robots already perform some construction work and other demanding tasks. However, jobs that involve solving unusual problems remain relatively secure. One example is the Technical Advisory Center (TAC), the technical support department of glass manufacturer Guardian Glass. Its staff explain in an interview why machines cannot replace their work:

“Our department has worked across the post-Soviet region for more than 10 years. We have accumulated a great deal of knowledge, yet even that is sometimes not enough to answer the many unusual questions we receive. Over the next 5 years, we do not foresee robots replacing even part of our work.”

There is no university program that directly prepares TAC specialists. The center therefore hires people with higher technical education, who need at least 4-6 months to acquire the skills required for the job.

5. What will architects of the future be like?

There is no single answer; it depends on whom you ask.

In the summer of 2018, we asked MIT professor Carlo Ratti the same question. He said architecture would draw on more and more disciplines, but that today's architecture students should first learn computer programming. Ratti believes architecture will increasingly rely on programming because “nature itself uses programming to generate life forms.”

Source: archspeech.com